Gather Round delivered the usual chaos. Six from nine is fine. The three high-confidence calls all went in, which is what you want from the model — hold firm on the certainties and accept that the coin-flips will go 50/50 over time. This week the coin-flips went badly.
Round 5 Results
Adelaide 114 def Carlton 86 — Predicted: Adelaide (61%) ✓
Adelaide at home against Carlton and the model had them at medium confidence. They won by 28. Carlton have now lost to Richmond, Adelaide twice in three weeks — a team that was supposed to be pushing for finals is looking very ordinary. Adelaide are quietly building something; two wins in Gather Round week with this scoreline is not nothing.
Fremantle 45 def Collingwood 39 — Predicted: Fremantle (51%) ✓
The model called it a coin-flip, and a coin-flip is exactly what it was. 84 total points across 120 minutes of football — one of the lowest-scoring games in recent memory. Fremantle scraped through by 6. Both teams looked like they’d rather be anywhere else. The model gets credit for the right team, no credit for insight.
Brisbane Lions 92 def North Melbourne 66 — Predicted: Brisbane Lions (76%) ✓
The first of three high-confidence hits. Brisbane at 76% over North Melbourne in Barossa Park, and they won by 26. North’s winning streak — three from four entering Round 5 — was always going to face a tougher test eventually. Brisbane are a genuine contender and the model is starting to show it. North still look good relative to where they were in 2025, just not at this level yet.
Essendon 113 def Melbourne 68 — Predicted: Melbourne (51%) ✗
The model called this one a coin-flip, edging Melbourne by a hair. Essendon won by 45. That’s not a coin-flip result — that’s a team that was significantly better on the day. Essendon have now beaten what the model considered the more likely winner two weeks running; this was an Anzac eve game in Adelaide and they were completely dominant. Melbourne, meanwhile, are in a strange place: they’ve been both better and worse than expected on different weeks. Their form is genuinely hard to read.
Sydney 100 def Gold Coast 68 — Predicted: Sydney (58%) ✓
Low confidence, right result. Sydney continue to look like the best team in the competition. Four wins from five, and this was one of the more comfortable victories despite the modest probability. Gold Coast had a good Opening Round but have now lost three of their last four. The model’s view on Gold Coast is dropping and will drop further with this data feeding in.
Hawthorn 104 def Western Bulldogs 64 — Predicted: Western Bulldogs (51%) ✗
The model had this as a 50/50, leaning fractionally to the Bulldogs. Hawthorn won by 40. That’s a hammering. The Bulldogs’ high-confidence win over Essendon in Round 4 now looks less impressive given Essendon just beat Melbourne by 45. Hawthorn are three wins from five and the model hasn’t fully processed how good this team is — the 2025 data is pulling the number down. Sound familiar? Same issue as Melbourne on the other side. Some teams have changed more than the rolling window can capture.
Geelong 122 def West Coast 76 — Predicted: Geelong (96%) ✓
The highest-confidence call of the round landed easily. Geelong by 46. West Coast are not a functional AFL team at this point — they’ve now been beaten by 53 points (Round 3), 128 points (Round 4 vs Sydney), and 46 points in consecutive away games. The model doesn’t need to know much to call these correctly. West Coast are an anchor on the model’s high-confidence accuracy in the good direction.
Greater Western Sydney 131 def Richmond 75 — Predicted: GWS (96%) ✓
The second 96% call of the round, equally correct. GWS by 56 in Barossa Park. Richmond are in a similar situation to West Coast — a rebuilding side who the model correctly identifies as heavy underdogs every week. GWS are genuine premiership contenders and this confirmed it. Four wins from five and beating teams comfortably.
St Kilda 81 def Port Adelaide 67 — Predicted: Port Adelaide (58%) ✗
Port Adelaide at low confidence and they lost at home — well, at Adelaide Oval — to St Kilda by 14. St Kilda are now two wins from their last three after a rough start to the year. Port were coming off a dominant win over Richmond and expected to handle St Kilda. They didn’t. The model had this as a low-confidence call and it missed; that’s acceptable. What’s less acceptable is that this is the second time Port have lost a game the model thought they’d win comfortably — the first was the 2-point loss to West Coast in Round 3. Something to watch.
Season to Date: 31/45 (69%)
| Round | Correct | Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Round | 3 | 5 | 60% |
| Round 1 | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| Round 2 | 6 | 7 | 86% |
| Round 3 | 4 | 7 | 57% |
| Round 4 | 5 | 8 | 63% |
| Round 5 | 6 | 9 | 67% |
| Season | 31 | 45 | 69% |
The season sits at exactly 69% — it has barely moved in three weeks. The high-confidence accuracy is the steadier number: three from three this round, and the overall high-confidence record remains strong at 82% across the season. The model’s problem is in the low-confidence band, where the coin-flips are running below 50%.
Model Observations
Hawthorn are better than the model thinks. Two wins this round — the 1-point thriller over Geelong in Round 4 and a 40-point thumping of the Bulldogs in Round 5. The model keeps calling their games as 50/50 or slight underdogs. The 2025 season data is dragging the number down. Until the window clears, treat Hawthorn predictions with scepticism and add a mental nudge upward.
Melbourne’s form is genuinely volatile. They beat Gold Coast and Carlton (both upsets), lost badly to West Coast in Round 4, and then lost by 45 to Essendon in Round 5. The model doesn’t know what to make of them because the data doesn’t either. This is a team in transition — the 2025 rolling average reflects a bad year, but the 2026 version is inconsistent rather than simply improved. Wide error bars on any Melbourne prediction.
Essendon are emerging. Two straight wins, both convincing. The model called both games as low-confidence coin-flips and they won decisively. This is a team improving faster than the data is catching up. Back them at medium confidence until the numbers say otherwise.
Port Adelaide’s losses are a pattern now. West Coast by 2 in Round 3. St Kilda by 14 in Round 5. Both were games the model expected Port to win. Their dominant wins (Richmond in Round 4, Essendon in Round 2) are real, but so are these failures. They’re a boom-or-bust team and the model treats them as consistent. Worth knowing.
Round 6 tips are live. Nine games, with Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide as the high-confidence call at home. The model is watching Melbourne, Essendon, and Hawthorn closely — the data will start catching up over the next few weeks.
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