Seven from nine. Season at 72.2%.
Results
The single high-confidence call — Fremantle over Essendon at the MCG — landed cleanly. Rated 72%, won by 43. That’s the kind of game the model is built for: a clear strength differential, and the result tracked it.
The other seven calls were all medium or low confidence, and the model split them five from seven. Geelong handled Brisbane at the Gabba by 41 (rated 59% as the away side), Sydney edged Collingwood by 6, Adelaide put 68 on North Melbourne, Gold Coast beat Port at TIO, Carlton beat the Bulldogs at Marvel, and St Kilda beat Richmond by 36.
Two misses, both at 61% for the away side. Melbourne beat Hawthorn by 39 at the MCG — the model rated Hawthorn 61% on metres gained and ball use, but Melbourne were the better side and the home venue mattered. And West Coast beat GWS by 17 at Optus. The Eagles came in 3-7 for the season; GWS were rated 62% on travel-adjusted features alone.
Technical
| Match | Predicted | Prob | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions vs Geelong | Geelong | 59% | ✓ | +41 |
| Sydney vs Collingwood | Sydney | 65% | ✓ | +6 |
| Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide | Gold Coast | 65% | ✓ | +25 |
| Adelaide vs North Melbourne | Adelaide | 65% | ✓ | +68 |
| Melbourne vs Hawthorn | Hawthorn | 61% | ✗ | −39 |
| Carlton vs Western Bulldogs | Carlton | 65% | ✓ | +12 |
| Essendon vs Fremantle | Fremantle | 72% | ✓ | +43 |
| St Kilda vs Richmond | St Kilda | 65% | ✓ | +36 |
| West Coast vs GWS | GWS | 62% | ✗ | −17 |
Season: 65/90 (72%)
| Round | Correct | Total | Accuracy | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Round | 3 | 5 | 60% | Logistic |
| Round 1 | 7 | 9 | 78% | Logistic |
| Round 2 | 6 | 7 | 86% | Logistic |
| Round 3 | 4 | 7 | 57% | Logistic |
| Round 4 | 5 | 8 | 63% | Logistic |
| Round 5 | 6 | 9 | 67% | Logistic |
| Round 6 | 7 | 9 | 78% | Phase NN |
| Round 7 | 7 | 9 | 78% | Phase NN |
| Round 8 | 6 | 9 | 67% | Phase NN |
| Round 9 | 7 | 9 | 78% | Phase NN |
| Round 10 | 7 | 9 | 78% | Phase NN |
| Season | 65 | 90 | 72% |
Model Notes
Only one high-confidence call this week, and it cashed. Fremantle at 72% over Essendon was the only game where the model claimed any real edge. With confidence that low across the board, seven from nine is actually doing well — the expected hit rate on a card of mostly 60–65% calls is closer to six. The Phase NN model has now strung together five straight rounds of six-or-better and the variance has been narrow: 6-7-7-6-7-7.
Both misses were 61–62% away-side picks where the home team won outright. Melbourne over Hawthorn and West Coast over GWS were not slight underdog wins — they were comfortable, 17 and 39 point margins. The model is over-weighting travel-adjusted form metrics in these medium-confidence away calls and under-weighting whatever the home venue is actually providing. Worth flagging because the pattern looked the same in Round 9 with the Fremantle vs Hawthorn miss at Optus.
Adelaide put 68 on North Melbourne and the model only rated them 65%. That’s the inverse problem to the Port Adelaide blind spot from earlier rounds — the model is now under-rating Adelaide at Adelaide Oval against bottom-six opposition. North Melbourne came in with stronger ball use and recent margin numbers, which dragged the probability down, but the venue and matchup made it a one-sided game from the opening bounce.
Geelong winning at the Gabba by 41 as a 59% favourite is the cleanest read. Brisbane have been close to unbeatable at home this season but Geelong’s structure has been the best in the competition since Round 6. The model called it correctly without overcommitting, and the margin reflected the underlying gap.
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