The 2026 season is underway, and the model opened with a 3 from 5 record. A solid start, though the two misses were hard to ignore.
The Results
Sydney 132 def Carlton 69 — Predicted: Sydney (70%) ✓
The Swans were dominant from the first bounce, running out 63-point winners. This was about as clean a result as you’d hope for — high confidence, high margin, correct. Carlton’s off-season moves didn’t translate into anything threatening on the night.
Gold Coast 125 def Geelong 69 — Predicted: Geelong (60%) ✗
The miss of the round. Gold Coast weren’t just better — they were 56 points better, which is a statement win at home to open the season. The model gave Geelong 60% based on their stronger form profile, but the Cats looked flat and the Suns were sharp. Worth watching whether this is a genuine shift in Gold Coast’s ceiling or an early-season blip from Geelong.
GWS 122 def Hawthorn 95 — Predicted: GWS (56%) ✓
A low-confidence prediction that came through comfortably. GWS were the better team by some margin — 27 points in the end. The model flagged GWS’s disposal and form advantages, and Hawthorn’s travel disadvantage; all three factors showed up on the day.
Western Bulldogs 111 def Brisbane Lions 106 — Predicted: Brisbane (55%) ✗
The tightest game of the round — five points at the Gabba, with the Bulldogs coming away as visitors. The model had Brisbane as slight favourites based on home ground and recent form. In a game this close, no model is going to be right reliably. Brisbane will be stinging.
Collingwood 78 def St Kilda 66 — Predicted: Collingwood (72%) ✓
The model’s most confident prediction of the round (after Sydney) came good. Collingwood were never seriously threatened, winning by 12. St Kilda showed some fight — their form metrics had flagged as surprisingly competitive — but Collingwood’s shot quality was the difference.
Takeaways
Three from five is a reasonable opening, but the Gold Coast result is worth noting. A 56-point loss for Geelong at a ground where the model expected them to win suggests either Geelong are in worse shape than last year’s form data indicates, or Gold Coast have genuinely improved. We’ll know more after Round 1.
The Brisbane-Bulldogs game is exactly the kind of coin-flip the model acknowledges with a low confidence rating. At 55-45, you’re essentially picking at random — the margin for error is the same as the game margin itself.
Round 1 predictions are up on the site. Eight games this week, with plenty of tighter matchups to navigate.
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