Round 2 is done, and the model had its best week of the season so far: 6 from 7, with only a tight St Kilda upset at ENGIE Stadium escaping the net.
Round 2 Results
Hawthorn 99 def Sydney 82 — Predicted: Hawthorn (54%) ✓
A low-confidence tip that landed. The model flagged Sydney’s travel disadvantage as the primary factor, and with a 17-point margin, it was right to. Sydney had the stronger underlying metrics — better metres gained, more scoring shots — but couldn’t overcome the cross-country trip. Worth watching how Sydney travel for the rest of the season.
Western Bulldogs 94 def Adelaide 88 — Predicted: Western Bulldogs (60%) ✓
A tight game that went with the tip. Adelaide were the home side but the model wasn’t convinced by their form, and the Bulldogs held on by 6. Adelaide’s form metrics have been inconsistent — they’re a team the model isn’t reading with much confidence yet.
Gold Coast 128 def Richmond 60 — Predicted: Gold Coast (63%) ✓
Gold Coast are making a habit of big wins. 68 points is an emphatic result, and the model had them as medium-confidence favourites. Richmond look like they’re going to be a consistent source of easy tips in 2026.
St Kilda 78 def Greater Western Sydney 74 — Predicted: GWS (88%) ✗
The miss of the round, and worth dwelling on. The model was highly confident here — 88% for GWS — and got it badly wrong. St Kilda won by 4 in what was the model’s most confident incorrect prediction of the season. GWS’s metrics coming in were strong across the board; St Kilda’s were not. A reminder that high confidence doesn’t mean certainty, and that St Kilda under new management may be a harder team to read than last year’s data suggests.
Fremantle 118 def Melbourne 70 — Predicted: Fremantle (59%) ✓
Fremantle at Optus Stadium is a reliable proposition, and the model had them as low-confidence favourites. A 48-point win made it look easier than the prediction suggested. Melbourne’s travel disadvantage was a noted factor, and they were well beaten.
Port Adelaide 133 def Essendon 70 — Predicted: Port Adelaide (66%) ✓
Port Adelaide are looking like a genuine force. A 63-point demolition of Essendon was the result of a team operating at a different level. The model had them at medium confidence — the margin blew that well away.
West Coast 111 def North Melbourne 94 — Predicted: West Coast (59%) ✓
A low-confidence home tip that held. West Coast won by 17, which is more comfortable than the prediction implied. North Melbourne had better form metrics on paper but couldn’t back it up away from home.
Season to Date: 16/21 (76%)
| Round | Correct | Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Round | 3 | 5 | 60% |
| Round 1 | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| Round 2 | 6 | 7 | 86% |
| Season | 16 | 21 | 76% |
The trend is encouraging — each round has been an improvement on the last. Opening Round was a rough start (the Gold Coast demolition of Geelong was the standout miss), but the model has found better footing since.
Model Observations
A few things worth noting after three rounds.
Travel is doing real work. The travel disadvantage feature has been a factor in several correct predictions — Sydney to Melbourne, Melbourne to Perth, Brisbane to Sydney. The model assigns a binary penalty for cross-country trips, and it’s holding up. Teams that travel interstate are losing at a higher rate than the model expected coming in, which suggests it may even be underweighting this factor slightly.
High-confidence misses are the problem. Both significant misses so far — the Gold Coast/Geelong blow-out in Opening Round and the GWS/St Kilda result in Round 2 — came from predictions where the model was confident. That’s the worst kind of wrong. The model’s calibration at the high-confidence end warrants watching; if it continues to miss badly on 80%+ predictions, that’s a structural issue with how it’s reading dominant teams.
New-look teams are hard to read. St Kilda, Adelaide, and Richmond are all in transition, and the model is leaning heavily on 2025 rolling averages for those squads. That data may not reflect what these teams actually are in 2026. This is an inherent limitation — the model needs to see the new version of a team before it can properly weight it.
The model likes home ground. Six of the seven Round 2 correct tips were home team wins. The model isn’t blindly picking home teams — it had GWS at home as its biggest miss — but home ground advantage is baked in via venue travel metrics, and it’s generally holding.
Round 3 tips are up. Seven games, with Fremantle vs Richmond shaping as the most lopsided matchup on the card.
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