Round 3: 4 from 7, and the Model Takes a Hit

Round 3 was a reality check. After back-to-back solid rounds, the model went 4 from 7 — its worst week of the season. The misses weren’t flukes or high-confidence blowouts; they were medium-confidence calls that fell just the wrong side of the line.

Round 3 Results

Geelong 68 def Adelaide 60 — Predicted: Geelong (62%) ✓

A low-scoring, scrappy game that went with the tip. Geelong won by 8 in what was effectively a coin-flip — the model had it right but there wasn’t much to be confident about. Adelaide continue to look inconsistent, and their underlying metrics aren’t convincing.

Collingwood 87 def Greater Western Sydney 54 — Predicted: Collingwood (62%) ✓

Comfortable for Collingwood in the end, despite the model only having them at medium confidence. A 33-point win is a stronger result than the tip implied. GWS have now lost two in a row after their Round 2 heartbreaker against St Kilda — their form metrics may be starting to catch up with their actual results.

Brisbane Lions 113 def St Kilda 80 — Predicted: Brisbane Lions (51%) ✓

The model barely had an opinion here — 51% is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Brisbane won comfortably by 33, which makes it look more decisive than the prediction suggested. St Kilda played well enough in patches but couldn’t stay with Brisbane in the final quarter.

Fremantle 103 def Richmond 43 — Predicted: Fremantle (91%) ✓

The model’s most confident call of the round, and it delivered. Fremantle at home against a Richmond side in rebuild is about as reliable as AFL tipping gets right now. A 60-point margin made it look easy.

North Melbourne 81 def Essendon 69 — Predicted: Essendon (58%) ✗

The first miss, and an uncomfortable one. The model had Essendon as low-confidence favourites, but North Melbourne won convincingly by 12. North are now 2-1 after wins over Port Adelaide and Essendon — they’re a better team than last year’s data suggests, and the model is slow to pick that up. This will self-correct as 2026 results accumulate.

West Coast 92 def Port Adelaide 90 — Predicted: Port Adelaide (66%) ✗

The cruellest result of the round. Port Adelaide were medium-confidence favourites and lost by 2 points. A margin of 2 is basically a coin flip at the final siren, and the model can’t be blamed for not seeing that coming. West Coast’s ability to grind out close results at home is real, and a 2-point loss is the kind of outcome that happens regardless of model quality. Still stings.

Melbourne 100 def Carlton 77 — Predicted: Carlton (62%) ✗

The miss that stings most, because Carlton were at home and the model had them as medium-confidence favourites. Melbourne won by 23 — that’s not a close game. Melbourne’s form has been building quietly, and the model’s Carlton lean may reflect 2025 data more than the current state of either team. Carlton have looked brittle in patches this season, and the model hasn’t fully registered that yet.

Season to Date: 20/28 (71%)

The season tally drops from 76% to 71% after Round 3. The trajectory that looked encouraging after Round 2 has flattened. High-confidence accuracy remains strong at 83% — the Fremantle tip was the only high-confidence call this week, and it landed easily. The problem is the medium-confidence band: three from four in that bracket this week, and two of those went wrong.

Model Observations

Three medium-confidence misses in one round is a problem. The model had Essendon, Port Adelaide, and Carlton all at 58–66% — confident enough to tip, but not dominant. All three lost. That’s not a catastrophic failure — at 62%, the model is effectively saying it will be wrong roughly 4 times in 10 — but losing all three in the same round hurts the weekly tally badly.

North Melbourne are outperforming their history. This is the clearest structural issue emerging. North Melbourne beat Port Adelaide in Round 1 and Essendon in Round 3. The model is leaning on rolling averages that include a poor 2025 season, and those aren’t representative of what North look like in 2026. The more results that come in, the faster the model will correct — but for now, North are a team to treat with more caution than the model currently does.

West Coast at home in close games. The Port Adelaide loss was a 2-point result. The model can’t predict margins that tight, and over a long season those will even out. It’s worth noting though that West Coast have now won both their home games this year — and neither was dominant on paper.

Melbourne’s form is real. A 23-point win over Carlton at home is not a fluke. Melbourne have looked like a different team to the one that ended 2025, and the model’s reliance on 2025 rolling data may be underselling them. Keep an eye on this.

Round 4 tips are up. Eight games next week, with the model’s updated Round 3 data now feeding in. A better week ahead — hopefully.