Welcome to 2026
The AFL season is back, and so are the predictions. This week I’m running the model over Opening Round — five games, no second chances to make a first impression.
The Marquee Game: Collingwood vs St Kilda at the MCG
The model’s most confident call this round. Collingwood have strong fantasy scoring and disposal form heading into the game, while St Kilda’s metrics are below average. The MCG gives Collingwood an additional edge. 72% confidence — this is one to trust.
Sydney vs Carlton at the SCG
The model’s second most confident call. Carlton’s away travel is a significant factor, and Sydney’s disposal and form metrics are strong at home. The model gives Sydney a clear edge at 70/30 — this is a high confidence pick.
Geelong vs Gold Coast at People First Stadium
Geelong travelling north but the model still likes them at 59%. Their average margin and fantasy scoring are both strong coming off the 2025 Grand Final campaign. Gold Coast have decent recent wins but the quality gap shows in the numbers.
GWS vs Hawthorn at ENGIE Stadium
GWS at home is a decent advantage. The model calls this 56/44 GWS. Hawthorn are travelling but have reasonable form — worth watching if you’re looking for an upset.
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Brisbane at the Gabba is a stronghold. 55% model confidence, with Brisbane’s average margin being the key differentiating factor. The Bulldogs have interstate travel working against them.
Summary
| Match | Model Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney vs Carlton | Sydney | High (70%) |
| Gold Coast vs Geelong | Geelong | Medium (60%) |
| GWS vs Hawthorn | GWS | Low (56%) |
| Brisbane vs W. Bulldogs | Brisbane | Low (55%) |
| St Kilda vs Collingwood | Collingwood | High (72%) |
Two high-confidence calls this round: Collingwood and Sydney. For the rest, I’d be cautious — Opening Round always throws up surprises.
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